Appendix A — Dictionary
Definition A.1 Case fatality rate (CFR): the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases (Meyerowitz-Katz & Merone, 2020).
Definition A.2 Infection fatality rate (IFR): the number of deaths divided by the number of infected individuals (Meyerowitz-Katz & Merone, 2020).
Definition A.3 Forecast: predictions about what will happen, helpful for situation awareness.
Definition A.4 Projection: estimates about what could happen, considering multiple possible outcomes, helpful for intervention planning when faced with uncertainty.
Definition A.5 Epidemic is “the occurrence of more cases of disease than expected in a given area or among a specific group of people over a particular period of time” (US-CDC) (Texier et al., 2016). Epidemic is derived from the Greek epi and demos meaning “that which is upon the people”, to describe the burden of some phenomenon on “the people” (Nelson & Williams, 2014).
Definition A.6 Tractable: can be solved (source)
Definition A.7 Microsimulation: an analysis in which individual instantiations of a system - such as a patient’s lifetime or the course of an epidemic - are generated using a random process to ‘draw’ from probability distributions a large number of times, in order to examine the central tendency and possibly the distribution of outcomes (Kim & Goldie, 2008).
Definition A.8 iid (independent and identically distributed random variables): each random variable has the same probability distribution as the others and all are mutually independent.
Definition A.9 Closed-form solution (or closed form expression) is any formula that can be evaluated in a finite number of standard operations (source).
infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) and serology data.
Definition A.10 Residual: is the difference between the observed value and the estimated value.
Definition A.11 Error: is the deviation of the observed value from the true value.
Matrix and linear transformation:
- Linear transformation is a function (transformation = function) that take in a vector and spit out a vector.
- Lines remain lines, and origin remains fixed.
Eigenvector (\(\vec{v}\)):
Eigenvalue (\(\lambda\)):
Definition A.12 Inverse matrix:
\[\begin{bmatrix} a & b \\ c & d \end{bmatrix}^{-1} = \frac{1}{ad - bc} \begin{bmatrix} d & -b \\ -c & a \end{bmatrix}\]
Definition A.13 Monte Carlo methods or Monte Carlo experiments: using repeated random sampling simulation to obtain numerical results.